Which streamers/broadcasters will commission more scripted content next year? This is difficult to map with any certainty, but here are some market indications.
2025 is just around the corner. Which broadcasters/streamers will probably lead investments in Nordic film and scripted series next year and drive commissions, and what emerging buyers could be worth watching?
“Approaching 2025, we believe the global streamers will continue to invest in original Nordic content, but to varying degrees,” Commissions Analyst Melissa Lederle, Ampere Analytics, told Nordisk Film & TV Fond (NFTVF).
“While commissioning activity has slowed since its peak in H1 2023, local broadcasters such as TV 2 Denmark and TV 2 Norway are well placed to compete with global streamers, given the cost-cutting implemented at many international players over the past year.”
Lederle also emphasises that SVT, DR, YLE, RÚV, and NRK have formed the New8 alliance.
“We believe New8 signals a strategic shift towards international collaboration. This partnership aims to co-produce eight high-end series annually, with a significant focus on Crime & Thriller titles.”
On the plus side, in 2025 the private Swedish TV industry will ideally have bigger commission budgets, since 600,000 new streaming subscriptions were added in the third quarter compared to 2023. According to Mediavision’s latest data, the primary driver was the introduction of more affordable, ad-supported subscription options, recently introduced by Viaplay, Max, Disney, and TV4 Play.
“These services are popular among consumers, and are fuelling strong growth. For the Swedish market in general, this is a positive sign after a relatively slow period over the past year,” CEO Marie Nilsson, Mediavision, said.
On the other hand, the inherent market conditions may put a damper on commissions in 2025, except for projects with cross-market potential, Digital Content & Channels expert Tim Westcott at Omdia told NFTVF.
“Most streamers are focused on breaking even in 2025. So they may cut back on local commissions, especially in markets like the Nordics, where English language comprehension is high, and consumers are more open to non-local content,” Westcott said, but added:
“However, that doesn’t mean they won’t invest, especially if they identify programmes and formats which they can export to other markets.”
In autumn 2024, the Nordic market discovered that Warner Bros Discovery’s Max is now a Nordic growth driver. The streamer opened all doors for pitches for scripted shows for its 2026 Nordic slate. The streamer, launched in the region in May, had previously been unclear about its local programme ambitions.
“We have been on a hiatus regarding scripted programming, but we are now looking at scripted again,” Pil Gundelach Brandstrup, head of Nordic content at Max, said at the CPH TV Festival. Max is ramping up a pipeline for the 2026 slate, and onwards will produce a select number of projects that need to be comparable for each key market, to supplement other content and make sense financially.
Add Amazon’s Prime Video to drivers. Case in point: Prime Video has commissioned Egmont-owned Nordisk Film Productions to co-produce an original film, Snake Killer, for the streamer. Prime has shifted its originals mission to focus more on scripted, Head of Nordic content Karin Lindström told at the CPH TV Festival.
“We have a very flexible slate. We aim to have more than one scripted title in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark per year. However, as we collaborate with many distributors and local partners, it is hard to confirm a solid number. But the ambition is to grow local scripted titles,” Lindström said.
While Netflix has steadily commissioned shows in Sweden and Norway, it reduced its interest in Denmark after the local rights conflict erupted in 2022. The US streamer now returns to the Danish market. Netflix has added more titles to its Nordic scripted slate for 2025, including a Swedish crime series and a Danish romantic drama film, the streamer announced in late September from its new Stockholm main office.
Elsewhere, signals are mixed from various corners of the market.
NRK was set to introduce 18 to 20 drama series in 2023 – some new, some continuing in all genres. Looking at 2025, NRK plans to launch 13 series, fiction editor Marianne Furevold-Boland, NRK, told NFTVF.
"That includes scripted content for children, teenagers, humour, and general drama,” she said.
Despite a three-year cost-saving programme facing Yle, the long-term impact of the cutbacks on Yle's offerings or commissions is unclear, because the parliamentary working group's report also required Yle to increase purchases of domestic productions, production services, and performance and usage fees by 15-20 per cent by 2030. According to Yle Communication, this increase amounts to 11-15 million euros.
The Nordic production industry is still anticipating the potential of major streamers like Apple TV+ and SkyShowtime. NFTVF reached out to Nordic management at both companies, but information on 2025 was not available before NFTVF’s deadline. However, a year ago, SkyShowtime acquired the Swedish series Veronika from Viaplay Content Distribution. The series has been renewed for a second season, which marks SkyShowtime’s first local original series recommission across its markets.
Finnish streamer Elisa Viihde is seeking its next crop of scripted co-productions, and is calling for bold storytelling. According to Elisa's chief content officer, Ani Korpela, the focus is on stories that are rooted in Finnish culture and society, with universal themes that resonate with global audiences.
It could be worth watching linear streamer Pluto TV Nordics, which is slowly ramping up on original content to build additional reach and encourage viewers to spend more time on the platform, Pluto TV announced at a press conference. So far, this is a Danish programming initiative, as Pluto TV has solid content partners in Denmark, and for the time being is pursuing other strategies in Norway and Sweden.